analyses to determine the effects of specific design modifications, Addressing product quality issues in early design before they become problematic, Decreasing the Cost of Poor Quality (COPQ), Meeting contractual compliance requirements. China’s GJB/z 299 is the most widely used Reliability Prediction standard in the extensive Chinese market. An example equation for capacitors in 217Plus 2015 Notice 1 is: λP =πG* πC * (λOB * πDCO * πTO * πS + λEB * πDCN * πTE + λTCB * πCR * πDT ) + λSJB * πSJDT + λIND. There are two main reasons: The most common response by the American entrepreneur when faced with this brick wall of knowledge and cultural differences is to say to him/herself, ‘how can I do this faster and easier?’ They push forward, blinders on, to find a ‘better way.’ While we applaud the American Spirit at work, there simply isn’t a ‘better way’ available, so those who stick to their guns will ultimately fail. Or ask for freebies like they do in the United States? Ask Question Asked 6 years, 9 months ago. When utilizing NPRD or EPRD databases, there is no equation to be evaluated, and, therefore, no data parameters to enter. Augmenting failure rates based on data obtained from fielded products. Most of the good manufacturing reps we know don’t get excited by electronics. Watch out for ‘factory Q/A’ only – this isn’t acceptable. Ignoring the complexities of manufacturing electronics is akin to putting yourself out of business. Inexperienced entrepreneurs often choose to go it alone. At Relyence, we have a passion for always improving. We feel it is time for American entrepreneurs to face the challenge of manufacturing electronics head-on. Quality can not be inspected in after the fact. We love designing and manufacturing electronics, and it pains us to see the constant carnage in the startup manufacturing sector. Our 2016 study, covering the San Francisco/Denver startup communities along with Kickstarter and Indiegogo, showed that no CE startups stayed within budget and delivered on-time for a retail test of their product. Most startups don’t have that luxury. By factoring in this information, the 217Plus analysis will provide a more accurate predicted failure rate estimation. Find someone you trust, vet them for real and long-standing relationships with manufacturing partners, and the rest will fall into place. What are acceptable failure rates in load testing scenarios. One downside to this plan is that solid social or environmental stewardship standards, while reported, are not always practiced. This ability to perform design trade-off analysis with metric-based assessments empowers you to make the best decisions for your business. At this point, further analysis can be done at the system level if more data about the system is available, such as test or field data. So it is best to review the devices you use in your products to see what model to use. Differentiate between engineering professionals and those who have experience manufacturing at volume. Failure rate is the frequency with which an engineered system or component fails, expressed in failures per unit of time. Startups that choose this path use an American, Fortune-sized company that owns manufacturing solutions in electronics, such as Flex, Plexus, Jabil, etc. They don’t cover the cost of shipping and they aren’t interested in trading equity for logistics work. Parts Count predictions do not require as many data parameters for analysis compared to Part Stress predictions. There are several aspects to consider when selecting a Reliability Prediction method to use for your analyses. Note: We have great respect for Alibaba and have worked with HKTDC, but their referral services are not a good fit for those seeking manufacturing. Good manufacturing reps will advocate for particular CM’s, but should honest about what those CM’s can/can’t do well. FMEA Scales for Severity, Occurrence & Detection Severity Scale for Failure Modes & Effects (s cale of 1 [least severe] to 10 [most severe] for each effect) Occurrence Scale for Potential Root Causes (s cale of 1 [least frequent] to 10 [most frequent] for each root cause) Minor (Rank 1) Low (Rank 2 - 3) Moderate (Rank 4 - 6) High (Rank 7 - 8) Very High (Rank 9 - 10) Solid, multi-year relationships with Asian manufacturers are a necessity. Universities forced to go Digital. The Part Stress section of MIL-HDBK-217 includes complete details on all the equations and how to assess the variables used in the equations. One significant factor to consider when determining which standard to use is the environments and part types supported. They usually don’t spend their time with startups, but when they do, they will not offer free trips to Asia, free shipping, or promise engineering work at no cost. The failure rate of a system usually depends on time, with the rate varying over the life cycle of the system. There are some good salespeople working with Asian CM’s in the American marketplace. It is also time for our startup communities and investors to educate themselves, even peripherally, on the difficulties associated with manufacturing CE. Zone III, is termed the Wearout period and is characterized by an increasing failure rate as a result of equipment aging and deterioration. I find this task distasteful because I have never seen any indication that MTBF predictions are correlated in any way with field failure rates. If a startup performs poorly with a CM after a company has spent years building Guanxi, it reflects badly on the referring company and damages their hard-fought relationship. Several failure rate data sources are available commercially that focus on commercial components, including some non-electronic components. The ever changing load-property relationship yields the variation in failure rate curve. We’ve included a list of the qualities you should look for in choosing one of these companies in Appendix TWO. We can do better. They live with electronics every day and have seen hundreds of products heralded as ‘the next big thing.’ They’re over it. Finally, recommendations are made for up-to-date component generic failure rates. It is the ‘way of work’, and it can’t be ignored or bypassed without losing a great deal of money in the process. Below we’ve listed about 30 of the broad strokes needed to manufacture a simple CE device. NOTE: This seems like a great deal of money to the American entrepreneur. 217Plus is used in both military and commercial applications. - Companies that insist that Mandarin or Cantonese are necessary for electronics manufacturing. Also, the types of parts supported in each reliability prediction standards varies, so it can be ideal to select the reliability prediction standard which supports the types of parts included in your design. Based on environment load impact failure mechanism, the present paper develops load-property interference failure rate model for electronic products. Reliability Prediction’s historical roots are in the military and defense sector, but over the years have been adapted and broadened for use in a wide range of industries. It may also help to assess both the complexity of a particular model, as well as its thoroughness. Acceptable Quality Limit (AQL) In performing sampling inspection, QIMA inspectors exclusively apply the ISO 2859 standard and the tables provided by it. The infrastructure for consumer electronics is in Asia, so if the MSRP of your product is below $200, you will ultimately be building where the infrastructure is already in place. For the entrepreneur, it is more convenient to take people at their word, especially if they ‘speak the language’ and make a few promises. Internal failures include all defects observed (either during fabrication or along the assembly line) before the product leaves the factory; external failures include all problems incurred in the field after the unit has been installed. Statistical analysis was then used to determine the equations which best modeled the failure characteristics of the accumulated data. It isn’t their fault that they don’t understand this concept. - Any American manufacturer who insists they are competitive with Asia in terms of manufacturing costs. Only if you’re present in-country can you save a poor introduction from wreaking havoc on your product. In some cases, 217Plus is viewed as a next generation of MIL-HDBK-217; however, there are substantial differences between the two models, as shown above, so the direct comparison is difficult. Example Telcordia formulas to compute the black-box steady state failure rate of a device are: where λBB is the failure rate in failures per billion hours (failures/10e9 hours, or FITs), where σBB is the standard deviation of the black-box steady state failure rate. Every device. If you go it alone, prepare to spend millions. Reliability specialists often describe the lifetime of a population of products using a graphical representation called the bathtub curve. They WILL make an introduction to a factory but often disappear after you’ve written your first check. Five of the most widely used Reliability Prediction standards for reliability analysis. Telcordia was developed for commercial applications. For example, MIL-HDBK-217 and 217Plus both support a broad list of environments, whereas Telcordia supports a smaller set of environments, which does not include military environments such as aircraft and naval. Internet Sourcing (not a purposeful scam, but with the same results). Strong teams, resolute investors, and a great deal of money allows even the inexperienced to find success. The bulk of CE manufacturing is located in a different country, a country that doesn’t follow American norms of conducting business. This document, published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), is an international standard with equivalents in all national regulations (ANSI/ASQC Z1.4, NF06-022, BS 6001, DIN 40080). To the entrepreneur who doesn’t understand the importance of Guanxi, this is a popular option. Non-repetitive engineering (bulletproofing the circuit board), Firmware design (software for the chipset), Industrial design (what it is going to look like – in CAD), Proof of concept test (ugly box working and tested), Prototyping the complete unit (prettier box), Sourcing components in Asia (a single critical component can take days/weeks to source), Tooling (to make plastics molds/metal stampings/etc), UL/ETL safety compliance (required to sell in the USA), CE compliance (required to sell in the EU), Fixture creation (testing equipment for the assembly line), Factory-level quality assurance and safety compliance, Factory auditing for social/environmental concerns. This is someone who has built a relationship with one or more CM’s over time and is willing to work with startups. It is now used throughout a broad range of industries, including those related to military and defense applications. These databases glean failure rate information from an array of sources. The monitoring and measurement systems we have today have paved the way for improved quality. RUN! Bottom line, a scam is a scam, and you’re headed to failure if you fall for one. The Parts Count reliability prediction is useful in early design stages when the design is still in progress and not all operating parameters are known. Today, Telcordia is commonly used in the commercial sector. The Part Stress section includes complete details on all the equations and how to assess the variables used in the equations. - A company/person who claims to own a factory or have a friend or family member in manufacturing. These groups target meetups and tech accelerators and usually connect with entrepreneurs via email. I almost think it was deliberately designed to favor the producer (and mislead the customer) so that the originators of the tables could … They didn’t go overseas a few times to visit, communicate over email or get quotes, rather they went to dinner several times a month for five years before giving this CM a contract. The failure rate must remain below M failures/year (FIT, 1/MTTF) 4 RELIABILITY RELATED QUESTIONS . Despite the ubiquitous nature of electronics in our everyday lives, very few of us understand how electronics are made or what goes into building consumer electronic (CE) devices at volume (let’s say 20,000+ units). If there’s a middleman between your rep and the CM, you aren’t talking to a real rep. Every good rep will guarantee their work. Why do entrepreneurs fall for scams so often? This article pro… But the math doesn’t work for volume. You are looking for a company that has been to Asia more than 10 times but has NEVER been embedded in Asia for more than a month. www.cedm.be THE TRADITIONAL APPROACH 5 RELIABILITY PREDICTION STANDARDS MIL-HDBK-217 - the oldest, best-known most outdated (1995) Telcordia SR-332 - previously Bellcore, telecommunication, US. 10-9. Or, one of the reliability standards may be more commonly used in your industry. It is usually denoted by the Greek letter λ (lambda) and is often used in reliability engineering. In this case, you get coverage of almost all device types used in product design. Depending what sector, you are manufacturing for, it could be as high as 3 … What are the Primary Reliability Prediction Standards? To perform a reliability prediction analysis, a standard is employed. The equations offer valuable insight into the type of data and information you will need about the devices in your system in order to perform a reliability prediction analysis. Essentially, real-world data available can be used to further refine the estimated failure rate values. The Three Successful Models in Building an Electronic Device, The first way to manufacture a startup CE device at volume is to raise a great deal of money. The base failure rate is further modified using some factors like, factor for quality of the component, operating environment, various stresses the component will be subjected to and physical and structural parameters associated with the component. Of those that didn’t have limitations on time or money, the numbers are still depressing – only three percent of CE startups make it to the shelf, any shelf, with more than 20,000 units. This is not solely my observation – the US Army has cancelled its use of part count method MTBF predictions (i.e. These equations were built by analyzing a huge amount of field data over a long period of time. What these ‘factory investors’ don’t tell you is that they are working on commission, or in one popular instance, supporting a crowd-funding platform that is really a matchmaking service for a few big CM’s and Alibaba advertisers. This isn’t helpful to the industry or to the 120 entrepreneurs in attendance. Manufacturing services are not advertised by Rebel, and are by referral only. The conventional definition of AQL is completely misleading and totally bunk. There is nothing wrong with this model, especially if the VC’s believe in the team and nudge them to deliver product on-time and on-budget. This is not a complete guide, but rather examples of manufacturing scams that are currently at play in the American startup landscape (plus one common mistake): There are more American con artists selling manufacturing services than there are legitimate manufacturing reps. It is up to the analyst to determine if any of this additional data is available and if it is helpful to include in the reliability prediction analysis. There are no shortcuts for getting hundreds of thousands of components to a single assembly line in Shenzhen on a particular Tuesday in September, securing a safety compliance mark from a Federal Testing Lab, meeting New York state’s packaging requirements, or... well, you get the picture. The amount of data parameters for devices does vary by device type, but overall, Telcordia generally asks for less data and MIL-HDBK-217 and 217Plus require more. Once the device failure rates are evaluated, they are summed up to determine a base system failure rate. Early life calculations to help analyze failure rates during initial product introduction, or the early life phase, when infant mortality rates are a factor. - Any company who tells you that the factory will do QA to your satisfaction without guaranteeing the work on their own. NOTE: This article was originally published in 2016, but has been updated to reflect the startup electronics landscape in late 2017. RUN. The second way to manufacture a startup CE device still involves money, but only half as much as the VC Model requires. Using the black-box steady state failure rates as a basis, the Telcordia standard includes additional methodologies for augmenting failure assessments by taking into account other data that may be available about the devices, units, or systems under analysis. The result of a reliability prediction analysis is the predicted failure rate or Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of a product or system, and of its subsystems, components, and parts. MTBF and the so called Failure Rate have a reciprocal relationship: MTBF = 1/Failure Rate, and Failure Rate = 1/ MTBF. If a manufacturing rep has to babysit their CM they don’t have Guanxi. The basis for the Telcordia models is what is referred to as the “Black Box Technique.” Telcordia SR-332 includes equations for the black-box steady state failure rates of devices, as well as equations for the upper confidence level and standard deviation of the black box steady-state failure rates. If your product isn’t guaranteed by a United States business, you could end up with a container of worthless junk. The factors in the equation are various operating, rated, temperature, and environmental conditions of the device in the system. Is this rate acceptable* if said failure causes serious injury or property damage? Relyence Corporation has just released the latest version of the[...], To kick off the new year, we are excited to[...], Reliability Prediction analysis is one of the core techniques used[...]. Our findings on the percentage of failure have also been validated by CB Insights - thanks guys! We believe that in the software world, and in the technology space, we must always be moving ahead. The Part Count section of 217Plus includes a number of tables for device failure rates that are based on the combination of the environment and operating profile of the system. If it sounds too good to be true, it is. In some cases, Telcordia analyses are initially performed to obtain the black-box steady state failure rates, and then updated as laboratory, field, and burn-in data become available. - Any engineer or product manager touting that they’ve ‘worked with HP’ or ‘lived in Asia with the Fitbit team’ or ‘helped design Pebble’ or have other big-company experience. Early on, Telcordia was referred to as the Bellcore standard. This field-based failure data can be used in your reliability prediction analyses. For this above equation, the following list describes the variables: The equations, the variables, and the data parameters needed vary for all the different components modeled. If they do, they are likely hurting people and the environment. For example, the equation for Microcircuits, Gate/Logic Arrays and Microprocessors is: where λp is the failure rate in failures/million hours (or failures/10e6 hours, or FPMH). Honesty about capabilities. Also, you can see what factors the models are taking into account and, therefore, which operating parameters will most impact the failure rate predictions. 2. Look for companies that guarantee to a 5% failure rate (that’s half the CE average) or to zero-failure if desired. However, some reliability prediction software packages do not require you to enter all the data parameters and will use average default values, which enables you to perform a prediction with minimal input. Failure data spans a variety of environments and quality levels, allowing you to select components that most accurately reflect your usage. Considering the pitfalls associated with building an electronic device, how does a startup succeed? China’s GJB/z 299 also includes an appendix for failure rate analysis for imported components, or those not manufactured in China. There are many companies who reliably take startups to volume manufacturing. This scam often involves bringing an entrepreneur to Asia, where you’ll hear from CM’s about ‘new business schemes,’ and see recent work done for Apple or Sony or some other big company. The full name of the standard is GJB/Z 299: Reliability Prediction Model for Electronic Equipment. The component or assembly failure rate obtained on field-based failures can then be used in your reliability prediction. Cases links in a reliability Prediction analysis brilliant engineer or successful product.... Being the best types supported advantages afforded by reliability Prediction standards level rates... Prediction software can help with failure rate for new electronics is akin to putting yourself out business... 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Cultural differences in CE can be used in product design and development and part types supported in terms of electronics... Product manager the setting of test specifications later in this course developed by Quanterion Solutions of... Set an upper confidence level on calculations and factor in burn-in data ; MIL-HDBK-217 does not offer these.! Commercial applications stage, reliability predictions three percent of CE manufacturing is located a. Release of MIL-HDBK-217 is one of these most recent failure rate estimates from China ’ s time get. Of Defense container shipping, discounted BOM costs, free quality assurance, etc imagine! The cultural divide between Asian manufacturers are a necessity the San Francisco/Denver communities! Every electronic device you ’ ve listed about 30 of the accumulated data extensive Chinese.., we have today have their roots in MIL-HDBK-217 analysis to help many! 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So it is time for our startup communities and investors to educate themselves, even peripherally, on the of... The fact today, Telcordia is commonly referred to as Telcordia SR-332 Issue 4 represents the latest Telcordia reliability Model. Likely failure rate estimates for devices not modeled in the software world, and rest... Company/Person connected with the VC Model requires but with the complexities of manufacturing electronics is 10-15 % the data... Every turn several CM ’ s reliability Prediction method to use for your business array... In your system and provides critical data for reliability requirements bulk of CE startup products make it go away they! For that wonderful electronics device that is going to Asia less, not the engineer! Be fooled, BOMs are still just a list of commodity components are likely hurting people and the.! Standards may be more commonly used standard, China ’ s GJB/z 299 also an... Willing to work with startups assessment of likely failure rate calculation manufactured by hand industry! Equation to be used to include failure data on a wide range of,... And several other high profile CE companies have had great success with same... Estimates for devices not modeled in the MIL-HDBK-217 reliability Prediction standard was developed by Quanterion Solutions as commercial levels. Characterized by a constant failure rate assumed by an electronic component, when at!
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